Clinton-Trump spar in first presidential debate

  • 'You don’t want to see your name in the paper'

    TVO journalist Steve Paikin, who has moderated six Canadian debates (three federal and three provincial), passed along this advice for Holt when he appeared on CBC News Network this morning:

    Job one for you is to make sure you are like an NHL referee the day after a hockey game. You don’t want to see your name in the paper.

    Here is the full interview:

  • A much anticipated showdown

    We'll be seeing a clash of personalities. Tonight's debate pits arguably the most politically experienced presidential candidate ever, Clinton (a former First Lady, New York senator, Secretary of State) against Trump, the billionaire businessman who has never been elected to public office, or held a top government post or high military rank, but nevertheless has a huge celebrity factor and populist appeal.

    Clinton has reportedly now participated in more than 40 debates over her political career. By contrast, Trump has participated in 11 presidential primary debates.

    The prospect of Trump bringing *anything* up from Clinton’s past, given his unpredictable nature, could get very uncomfortable very quickly. Will he, for instance, reference the extramarital activities of her husband, former president Bill Clinton? Will Clinton slam Trump’s messy divorces? Could there be a new low in presidential debates?
     
    Trump has already threatened to invite Gennifer Flowers, with whom Bill Clinton admitted to having a sexual relationship with decades ago, to sit in the front row. This, after the Clinton campaign reportedly offered a front-row seat to billionaire reality-TV star Mark Cuban to throw Trump off his game. (Cuban, by the way, is in the audience)
  • Getting under Trump's skin

    Debate prep veterans I interviewed also believe it’s highly likely that Clinton will attempt to get under Trump’s skin by saying just the right thing to undermine him or rile him up, basically to bait him into revealing a side to him that might seem un-befitting of the Oval Office.

    Now, how might she do that?

    Well, she might reference any manner of things, from actions of his children (such as the sharing of alt-right memes by his son Donald Trump Jr.) to poking at some of his failed business ventures (such as the bankruptcy of Trump Entertainment Resorts in Atlantic City.)

  • Which Trump will Clinton be debating this time around?

    Will it be the measured, scripted, “presidential” Trump who showed up to his last Republican primary debate in Miami?

    Or will it be the rambling, combative name-calling master of bluster who we saw in the earlier GOP debates?

    How he presents himself will be crucial, as Clinton attempts to show to a wider audience why she has been slamming Trump as “temperamentally unfit” to occupy the Oval Office. Trump will have to keep his cool.

  • Some gender dynamics are at play, too...

    Veteran political strategists have noted that perceptions about a debate between two men or between two women can go down very differently than when a man and a woman face off. Campaigns are aware of the pitfalls of “mansplaining,” for example (something VP Joe Biden had to prep for during this ’08 debate with Sarah Palin). And let’s not forget how Trump’s comments attacking GOP rival Carly Fiorina’s physical appearance (“Look at that face!”) backfired on him and scored Fiorina points.

    Clinton has the challenge of playing the part of the “happy warrior” who must look like she’s having fun, seeming relatable, even while on the attack. This whole gender minefield thing may sound unfair or sexist, but it’s unfortunately just the way it is sometimes in presidential debates.

  • Parents and politics

    Clinton is now pulling parents into the debate as well as the candidates upbringings. She mentions the money Trump's father gave him and how her upbringing was different.
     
    Trump responds: "My father gave me a very small loan."
  • Trump: "I will bring back jobs, you can't bring back jobs."
     
     
  • The importance of Ohio

    Donald Trump just mentioned job losses in Michigan and Ohio. Hillary Clinton is leading in Michigan by about four points according to our projections, while Trump is up narrowly in Ohio.
     
    No Republican has won the White House without taking Ohio, and Michigan could be part of a winning electoral map for Donald Trump that includes other gains in the Midwest.
    by Eric Grenier edited by Haydn Watters 9/27/2016 1:21:20 AM
  • Poll watch: African Americans

    Donald Trump has told African Americans to vote for him, because "what the hell do you have to lose."
     
    According to Bloomberg's polling averages, Clinton is leading among African Americans by 80 points.
    by Eric Grenier edited by Haydn Watters 9/27/2016 1:50:08 AM
  • Now it is Trump's turn to answer Holt's question about race relations.
     
    Trump: "African-American communities are being decimated by crime." He claims that Clinton doesn't want to use the words law and order.
     
    Trump is calling for stop and frisk approach.
     
  • Fact check: Stop and frisk, part 2

    CBC's Adrienne Arsenault and her colleagues at The National spent the night fact checking the debate. Here are a few of her findings, starting first with Trump's statements about stop and frisk and crime rates.
     
    Trump was praising the technique tonight, saying it worked incredibly in New York. 
     
    Arsenault found that there is no agreement on whether or not it worked there and that there are arguments on both sides. In New York, it started to be used in 1990s.
     
    In 1990, the murder rate in New York was roughly 31/100k, far more than the national average. A decade later, it was down to 8.4 per cent/100k. There is no certainty that it was because of stop and frisk, as Trump claimed during the debate tonight. The drop in crime rate had started already and was happening in places where stop and frisk wasn't used.
     
    It was stopped in 2013, when a federal court declared it unconstitutional as it was unfairly targeting minority communities. Curiously, the biggest drop in the murder rate happened when the stop and frisk program ended. Arsenault and her team conclude that Trump isn't right to be that definitive.
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