John Sauder weather blog Live

John Sauder, CBC's meteorologist in Manitoba, keeps track of weather moving across the province.

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    John's Weather Journal July 16

    No heat warning today. Humidity levels are down so a much more comfortable day with a high of 26 this afternoon. 

    Again this afternoon and evening, there is a slight chance of a stray shower. As of 2pm, I can see a few of those forming in the Interlake and drifting gently to the southeast.

    Wednesday brings a higher chance of showers or even thunderstorms to the south in the afternoon and evening hours as a low moves up from the southwest. 

    The day starts with sunshine but clouds will fill in by noon with showers threatening shortly after that.  

    Thursday also looks a little unstable with a mix of sun and cloud and another chance for some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. 

    Friday will be sunny, but windy with gusts of 60 km/h out of the west in the afternoon. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast For Winnipeg:

    Tuesday:  NW @ 10 in the afternoon. 

    Wednesday:  SE @ 10/15 in the morning.   SW @ 10 in the afternoon. 

    Thursday:  W @ 10 in the morning.  S @ 15/20 in the afternoon.

    Friday:  W @ 30/40 in the morning.  W @ 30/60 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal July 15

    When I left for my week off, we were badly in need of rain. Now, not so much. 

    Wouldn’t it be nice if the rain arrived gradually over time, and evenly over the forecast region. 

    Monday morning, we received between 4 and 14mm in Winnipeg and closer to 26mm in Steinbach. 

    There is a slight chance of a pop up thunderstorm this afternoon and evening but the big weather story today is the heat and humidity. We have a heat warning in effect. 

    The daytime high today will be close to 30 degrees but the dewpoint temp will be close to 20. Any time the dew point temp is higher than about 16, it starts to feel very muggy. Over 20 is oppressive.  

    For southern Manitoba, heat warnings are issued when we have two consecutive days with either high and low temps of 32 and 16 degrees - or - 2 days with humidex values expected to reach 38 or higher. 

    This heat warning is more about the humidex than it is about temperature. 

    Tuesday will be slightly cooler and less humid with a risk of some morning fog patches. Wednesday brings more rain to southern Manitoba in the second half of the day.

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast For Winnipeg:

    Monday:  W @ 20/25 in the afternoon. 

    Tuesday:  S @ 10 in the morning.   NW @ 10 in the afternoon. 

    Wednesday:  SE @ 10 in the morning.  S @ 30/40 in the afternoon.

    Thursday:  S @ 10/15 in the morning.  SW @ 30/50 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal July 5

    It will be a little cooler at 25 on Friday but temps gradually climb over the weekend, reaching 30 degrees on Monday. 

    That’s when things start to get interesting. I’m forecasting some showers and thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday. 

    The storms on Monday will likely arrive late in the day after a very hot and humid afternoon. The high temp will be close to 30 and the dew point will be close to 20 degrees. That’s sticky for sure. 

    Next week actually looks quite unstable for several days. We could see thunderstorms off and on (even at night - nocturnal) anytime between Monday afternoon and Wednesday night. 

    It’ll be difficult the nail down the timing of those simply due to the nature of the systems coming through. Best to be aware of the potential for storms and to be prepared.  

    Behind that hot and humid day on Monday, daytime highs will be much cooler, close to 23 or 24 degrees through Thursday next week. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast For Winnipeg:

    Friday:  NW @ 25/30 in the afternoon. 

    Saturday:  NE @ 10 in the morning.   Light Wind in the afternoon. 

    Sunday:  S @ 10/15 in the morning.  S @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

    Monday:  S @ 20/25 in the morning.  S @ 30/50 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal July 4

    Yesterday’s rain was nice to see but was also simply not enough. South and east of Winnipeg, there was a little more than the 2mm we picked up in the city. 

    To the north, there was very little accumulation. Conditions are still very dry all across the south. We all need to be careful with open fires and the proper disposal of things that are burning, like cigarettes. 

    Today starts a stretch of dry weather that lasts for about four days. Expect lots of sunshine and a high of 27 this afternoon, a pleasant summer day. 

    It will be a little cooler at 25 on Friday but temps gradually climb over the weekend, reaching 30 degrees on Monday. 

    That’s when things start to get interesting. I’m forecasting some showers and thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday. 

    Next week actually looks quite unstable for several days. We could see thunderstorms off and on (even at night - nocturnal) between Monday and Wednesday night. 

    It’ll be difficult the nail down the timing of those simply due to the nature of the systems coming through. Best to be aware of the potential for storms and to be prepared.  

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast For Winnipeg:

    Thursday:  NW @ 10/15 in the afternoon. 

    Friday:  N @ 20 in the morning.   NW @ 20 in the afternoon. 

    Saturday:  Light wind in the morning.  Light wind in the afternoon.

    Sunday:  SW @ 10 in the morning.  S @ 20 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal July 3

    After a quick blast of welcome rain around the noon hour in Winnipeg, we still have a few more showers heading in this direction. Nothing heavy. 

    As I indicated yesterday, most of the heavier downpours are south and east of the city. 

    As of 2;30, there are still some heavier pockets of rain along a line from just north of Emerson to Steinbach. That's all moving in a northeasterly direction. 

    Satellite and Radar near 3pm Wednesday
     

    This all clears out of the south tonight leading to a sunny and warmer Thursday. Expect daytime highs near 27 degrees. 

    Thursday is the start of another dry stretch that lasts several days. Not what we need. We need a soaking rain. 

    Since April 1st, Winnipeg is at about 40% of normal rainfall. The rest of the south is similar. 

    Daytime highs will be between 25 and 27 through the rest of the week and the weekend. 

    Our next opportunity for some rain is Monday and Tuesday with some showers and thunderstorms possible. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast For Winnipeg:

    Wednesday:  W @ 15 in the afternoon. 

    Thursday:  NE @ 10 in the morning.   NW @ 10 in the afternoon. 

    Friday:  NE @ 10/20 in the morning.  N @ 20 in the afternoon.

    Saturday:  Light Wind in the morning.  Light Wind in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal July 2

    If the weekend was a little too hot, you’ll like this better. Mainly sunny today with a high in the mid 20s. 

    It’s still very dry even though parts of the south had a good downpour on Saturday. If your grass is dry, you’ll need more than what Mother Nature is offering this week. 

    Expect a little more cloud to drift in by Wednesday morning and a slight chance of an afternoon shower. 

    Thursday is a sunny day and there is a chance of some overnight showers into Friday morning. 

    Temps will be fairly consistent this week with highs around 26 to 27 degrees. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast For Winnipeg:

    Tuesday:  NW @ 20/30 in the afternoon. 

    Wednesday:  Light Wind in the morning.   SW @ 10 in the afternoon. 

    Thursday:  Light Wind in the morning.  NW @ 10 in the afternoon.

    Friday:  N @ 25/30 in the morning.  NW @ 25/30 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal June 28

    First day off for the kids and the last day on for most teachers. It's a hot one with temps up around 30 this afternoon and lots of sunshine. 

    Expect a few more clouds this afternoon, but nothing in the way of showers. 

    Saturday will be interesting. It'll be steamy at 31 to 32 degrees, windy, and humid. All week, I've been talking about the chance for storms in southern Manitoba on Saturday.

    Some of this will form Friday night in Saskatchewan and drift into the western part of Manitoba by Saturday morning. 

    Some of the forecast models are bringing that first round of storms into the Red River Valley by mid day. I have that chance in my forecast. 

    RPM Model Hints at Mid Day Storms. More Storms Later in Evening.
     

    Then I think we have re-developing storms late in the evening and overnight. Those carry on into northwestern Ontario overnight as well. 

    This all moves east by Sunday morning and leaves behind a sun/cloud mix in the afternoon and a more comfy day with respect to humidity.  

    Canada Day is looking fairly calm with temps still pushing the upper 20s along with plenty of sunshine.  

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast For Winnipeg:

    Friday:  SE @ 10 in the afternoon. 

    Saturday:  SE @ 20 in the morning.   S @ 30/50 in the afternoon. 

    Sunday:  NW @ 20 in the morning.  W @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

    Monday:  SW @ 10 in the morning.  SW @ 20/25 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal June 27

    Thursday will be a great day to get the kids together at the pool or splash pad. Lots of sunshine and temps approaching 29 or 30 degrees. 

    The UV Rating will also be very high so sunscreen is a must these days whether at play or at work. 

    I’m also forecasting a gleeful scream in the afternoon as kids get let out for the summer break. Question is, is that gleeful scream from the kids, or the teachers? 

    Friday will be quite sunny at first with a few clouds into the afternoon.

    We are heating up toward the weekend. I still think we have a good shot at a couple of 30 degree days Saturday and Sunday.

    Saturday will not only be warm, it’ll be windy and humid as well. 

    There is a chance of a round of thunderstorms late in the day on Saturday that may carry through into Sunday morning. 

    If we see showers Sunday morning, they should move out early leaving behind a sun/cloud mix in the afternoon and a more comfy day with respect to humidity.  

    Canada Day is looking fairly calm with temps still pushing the upper 20s. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast For Winnipeg:

    Thursday:  N @ 10/15 in the afternoon. 

    Friday:  NE @ 10 in the morning.   Light Wind in the afternoon. 

    Saturday:  SE @ 20/25 in the morning.  SE @ 40/70 in the afternoon.

    Sunday:  W @ 10 in the morning.  W @ 25/30 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal June 26

    Expect lots of sunshine Wednesday with a slight chance of a shower in the afternoon. I must emphasize the word slight. 

    Most of the scattered showers will be through the Interlake region but there is a chance of an isolated cell drifting south. 

    Thursday will be a great day to get the kids together at the pool or splash pad. Lots of sunshine and temps approaching 29 or 30 degrees. 

    The UV Rating will also be very high so sunscreen is a must these days Whether at play or at work. 

    Friday will also be quite sunny but there is a chance of an afternoon shower. 

    We are heating up toward the weekend. I still think we have a good shot at a couple of 30 degree days Saturday and Sunday

    There is a chance of a round of thunderstorms late in the day on Saturday that may carry through into Sunday morning. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast For Winnipeg:

    Wednesday:  W @ 20/30 in the afternoon. 

    Thursday:  NE @ 10 in the morning.   N @ 10/15 in the afternoon. 

    Friday:  E @ 10 in the morning.  SE @ 10/15 in the afternoon.

    Saturday:  SE @ 15/20 in the morning.  S @ 30/40 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal June 25

    Another day of watching the radar to see where rain lands. We are in another scattered showers/storm situation today, as expected. 

    As of 2:30pm, there is quite a bit of action in the Interlake around Gimli and north into the Hecla region. Plenty of lightning there.

    I also see some showers and storms to the southeast of Winnipeg and to the west near Russell, Roblin, and Dauphin. 

    CBC Lightning Tracker - 2:30pm
     

    This will start to dissipate early in the evening and leave behind a clear overnight. Be prepared for rain even if you leave the house under a sunny sky. 

    Expect lots of sunshine Wednesday with a slight chance of a shower in the afternoon. 

    We are heating up toward the weekend. I still think we have a good shot at a couple of 30 degree days Saturday and Sunday

    There is a chance of a round of thunderstorms late in the day on Saturday that may carry through into Sunday morning. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast For Winnipeg:

    Tuesday:  W @ 25/40 in the afternoon. 

    Wednesday:  W @ 10 in the morning.   NW @ 20/25 in the afternoon. 

    Thursday:  NE @ 10 in the morning.  NE @ 10 in the afternoon.

    Friday:  SE @ 10 in the morning.  SE @ 20/25 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal June 24

    We'll have a hazy sunshine today for the Red River Valley and west. But we also have showers popping up.

    These are widely scattered as of 1pm and are forming east of Winkler heading toward Emerson. Another batch of showers and possible storms is just crossing the Manitoba border from Saskatchewan. 

    I also see a couple of cells just south of Portage heading east. 

    CBC Lightning Tracker - 1:50 pm
     

    For the Red River Valley, It's an afternoon and evening chance of a shower or non severe storm. These are forming quickly. 

    Tuesday is also a little unstable with a sun/cloud mix and a scattered shower or storm in the afternoon. 

    There is some heat coming to southern Manitoba as we approach the first long weekend of summer. 

    Expect sun and upper 20s Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with a slight chance of a passing shower on Wednesday afternoon. 

    Saturday and Sunday are steamy, in the 30s, and there is a chance of a thunderstorm late in the day on Saturday. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast For Winnipeg:

    Monday:  NW @ 20 in the afternoon. 

    Tuesday:  NW @ 15/20 in the morning.   NW @ 20/25 in the afternoon. 

    Wednesday:  W @ 10 in the morning.  W @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

    Thursday:  NE @ 10 Wind in the morning.  Light Wind in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal June 21

    On the sidewalk outside the CBC Friday at around noon, guy comes up to me (wait, this is sounding like the start of a bad joke), anyway he says “I have a wedding I’m planning for Saturday afternoon. What are we looking at for weather”?

    Here’s my response in a nutshell: Rain this evening and overnight, ending before noon Saturday, then just cloudy and 22 degrees. He was happy. Let’s hope it turns out that way. 

    I forgot to mention wind. It will be gusting 60 out of the south in the afternoon which will destroy the bride’s hairdo, but still, could be worse. 

    Now, I know not everyone has a wedding on Saturday. Perhaps it’s a camping trip or attending one of the many festivals around southern Manitoba. 

    This upper level low is over NE Montana as of mid afternoon Friday and is already spreading rain into parts of southern Manitoba with the main event scheduled for this evening and overnight. 

    Middle of the night Friday - Saturday
     
    Mid Day Saturday
     

    Generally, we can expect 5-10mm but there will be pockets of heavier rainfall. As mentioned earlier, the rain should be letting up by mid day Saturday, however, farther east into cottage country, expect rain later in the day. 

    Sunday’s forecast has changed. I’m now expecting a lot more sunshine and, as a result, a warmer day at 25 degrees. 

    Back to the rain for a second. The Interlake (Arborg, Fisher Branch) is very dry so let’s hope we get some rain where we need it. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast For Winnipeg:

    Friday:  SE @ 30/50 in the afternoon. 

    Saturday:  S @ 25/30 in the morning.   SE @ 40/60 in the afternoon. 

    Sunday:  SW @ 20 in the morning.  W @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

    Monday:  Light Wind in the morning.  W @ 15/20 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal June 20

    The chance of an afternoon shower on Thursday is slight but, as of 2pm, we have a few sprinkles happening downtown and in northeast Winnipeg. 

    If its not sprinkling, it sunny and hot. One of those days. 

    The main band of heavier rain is in the southwest corner of the province from Brandon down to the southwest. I’m also see lightning near Russell as of 2:30 and some scattered showers near Dauphin. 

    This system weakens as it moves toward the Red River Valley later in the day. 

    The upper level flow will be favourable for several waves of showers or thunderstorms from Friday night through to Sunday. Temps will be cooler as well. 

    It’s not a complete deluge by any means, but there is potential for some fairly heavy downpours at times with a few breaks in between. 

    I still see the chance for a decent soaker on Saturday night. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast For Winnipeg:

    Thursday:  SE @ 30/40 in the afternoon. 

    Friday:  SE @ 20 in the morning.   SE @ 30/50 in the afternoon. 

    Saturday:  S @ 30/40 in the morning.  S @ 40/50 in the afternoon.

    Sunday:  S @ 20/30 in the morning.  SW @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal June 19

    Another beautiful summer day all across the province. 

    Even in the north, temps are hitting the upper 20s today and that includes Churchill at 28 degrees this afternoon (the polar bears hate this weather)

    Enjoy this one. There’s a change coming. Let’s call Thursday the transition day.

    Expect increasing cloud Thursday as a low moves into the southwest through the day. The system provides the west with a dose of moisture in the afternoon but kind of loses interest as it proceeds toward the Red River Valley Thursday evening. 

    There is still a chance of showers here, but not much of a soaking rain. 

    Then, our sky turns into an unsettled grumpy little child as we head into the weekend. 

    The upper level flow will be favourable for several waves of showers or thunderstorms from Friday night through to Sunday. Temps will be cooler as well. 

    It’s not a complete deluge by any means, but there is potential for some fairly heavy downpours at times punctuated by moments of serene blissfulness. 

    Be prepared for the downpours, and take advantage of the bliss.  

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast For Winnipeg:

    Wednesday:  SE @ 10 in the afternoon. 

    Thursday:  SE @ 10/15 in the morning.   SE @ 30/40 in the afternoon. 

    Friday:  E @ 20 in the morning.  SE @ 30/50 in the afternoon.

    Saturday:  S @ 20 in the morning.  S @ 30/50 in the afternoon.

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