John Sauder weather blog Live

John Sauder, CBC's meteorologist in Manitoba, keeps track of weather moving across the province.

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    John's Weather Journal September 21

    Over the next week, what is missing from my forecast is an abundance of sunshine. What isn’t missing, is showers or rain. We’ll be dealing with periods of ‘wet’ on and off over the next several days.

    Saturday starts with an interesting mix. After some rain Friday overnight, we may even see a few wet snowflakes mixed with showers during the early hours on Saturday. 

    The chance for this is much higher to the north of the city through the lower Interlake, but still, it’s there for Winnipeg as well. 

    The pink area is a rain/snow mix. The white area is... well, you know!
     

    The rest of Saturday is just cloudy and cool as we welcome the autumn equinox Saturday evening at 8:54. 

    We are certainly at that ‘anything can happen’ time of year. 

    This will be a generally cool, breezy weekend. Sunday gets soggy again with occasional showers turning into an evening rain. That turns into more showers on Monday morning. 

    Daytime highs will stay short of the seasonal mark by 4 or 5 degrees every day for the next week. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Friday: NW @ 20 this afternoon. 

    Saturday:  NE @ 30/50 in the morning.   NE @ 25/30 in the afternoon. 

    Sunday:  E @ 20/30 in the morning.  E @ 30/40 in the afternoon.

    Monday:  NW @ 10/20 in the morning. NW @ 15/20 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal September 19

    That ‘S’ word is creeping into forecast discussions, especially across central and northern parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Where there is early morning precip, there is a chance of flurries or light snow. 

    As for most of northern Manitoba, skies are fairly clear over the next several days which means no snow, but you’ll see overnight temps down around -4 to -6 and daytime highs in the single digits. 

    Across the south Thursday looks bright in the morning but cloud builds in the afternoon ahead of a soaking rain in the evening. 

    Winnipeg will be on the northern edge of that rain as the low tracks northeasterly across the Dakotas.

    Thursday Evening Rain on Futurecast
     

    Over the next several days, we’ll see periods of showers or rain and cooler weather for the weekend. 

    On Saturday, Winnipeg’s temp will struggle to get to 10 degrees and there is a chance of showers. The Autumn Equinox happens at 8:54 Saturday evening. 

    Sunday, not much warmer and some afternoon and evening showers are likely. 

    Sure is starting to feel like fall. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Wednesday: N @ 20 this afternoon. 

    Thursday:  NE @ 10 in the morning.   NE @ 20/40 in the afternoon. 

    Friday:  NW @ 15/20 in the morning.  SW @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

    Saturday:  NW @ 20/30 in the morning. NE @ 30/40 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal September 18

    Tuesday will turn out to be a pleasant day with a sunny sky through most of the afternoon, then partly cloudy skies late afternoon and evening. Expect light wind and a high of 16 at least. 

    There’s a chance of an early morning shower on Wednesday, then a mix of sun and cloud in the afternoon. 

    I’ve pushed Thursday’s rain back to the late afternoon or evening hours. Otherwise, it’s a breezy, cool day at 12 degrees. 

    That low is tracking to the east so most of the rain will be through the southeast corner of the province and into NW Ontario. 

    Friday starts with windy conditions in the morning. Wind gradually drops off in the afternoon with a sun/cloud mix. 

    In the north we are seeing single digit highs all week and lows in the -5 to -7 range. (Thompson)  

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Tuesday: NW @ 10 this afternoon. 

    Wednesday:  N @ 20 in the morning.   N @ 20 in the afternoon. 

    Thursday:  N @ 10 in the morning.  N @ 30/40 in the afternoon.

    Friday:  NW @ 30/50 in the morning. NW @ 20 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal September 17

    Last week I was talking about how Sunday would be an interesting day as far as high temps was concerned. Well, it was.

    I was forecasting a push of very warm air into southeastern Manitoba and NW Ontario for Sunday afternoon. The uncertainty was around how far west that warm air would move. 

    I was talking about a high of 21 for Winnipeg, but more like upper 20s or even low 30s for the SE corner of the province. 

    Here’s the run down of highs from west to east on Sunday.

    Sunday's Afternoon Highs
     

    We are certainly colder going into this week. Right across the south, daytime highs will be closer to 12 degrees today, well below normal. 

    Tuesday will turn out to be a pleasant day with a mix of sun and cloud, light winds and a high of 16 degrees.

    There’s a chance of a morning shower on Wednesday but the more steady rain arrives on Thursday. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Monday: NE @ 10/15 this afternoon. 

    Tuesday:  Light Wind in the morning.   Light Wind in the afternoon. 

    Wednesday:  Light Wind in the morning.  N @ 15 in the afternoon.

    Thursday:  NE @ 15/20 in the morning. N @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal September 14

    Friday will turn out to a generally cloudy day with a few sunny breaks. It will be fairly comfortable with light winds here in the Red River Valley. 

    Clouds increase though this evening as another band of rain tracks into Manitoba. Expect some rain tonight through the Interlake and northern Red River Valley., showers to the south this evening. 

    On Saturday, we’ll see some bright patches early, but then another low moves into the eastern prairies out of the northern plains. We’ll see some showers Saturday night into Sunday.

    Sunday’s temps will be a challenge to forecast. Most models are now agreeing that the low will track farther north which means the more organized rain will as well. 

    What is still in question and uncertain, is how far north and west the warmest air will travel. I have Winnipeg at 21 degrees on Sunday. Some of the guidance has us at 25 degrees. 

    It looks to me like that mid to upper 20s warmth may stay to the south and east of the Red River Valley. Areas as close as Steinbach could be several degrees warmer than Winnipeg Sunday afternoon. Sprague in the southeast, could have a high temp in the upper 20s, similar for NW Ontario. 

    NAM Model Shows the warmest air Sunday afternoon stays east of RRV
     

    We’ll also have a lot of cloud around and occasional showers on Sunday afternoon. Expect a more steady rain Sunday in the Interlake region.  

    Heading into next week, temps will be much cooler at around 13 to 14 for daytime highs. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Friday: N @ 10 this afternoon. 

    Saturday:  NE @ 20/25 in the morning.   E @ 20/30 in the afternoon. 

    Sunday:  NE @ 15 in the morning.  NW @ 20/25 in the afternoon.

    Monday:  NW @ 10 in the morning. NW @ 15/20 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal September 13

    Last evening and overnight, we received more rain than the normal monthly September rainfall. This is already the rainiest month in Winnipeg since June 2016. 

    We received 62.9mm at YWG, 46.6 of that falling before midnight which makes September 12th the 6th rainiest September day on record (source: Weatherlogics).

    Winnipeg Rainfall Totals
     

    Not much rain through the rest of today, just a few sprinkles. As skies break up tonight, there’s a good chance for some patchy fog to form. 

    Friday starts with patchy fog, otherwise a mainly sunny sky. Clouds increase in the afternoon as we head into a fairly cloudy weekend. 

    On Saturday, we’ll likely see a few sunny breaks in the morning hours but cloudy skies in the afternoon and showers in the evening and overnight. 

    Showers or periods of rain continue through Sunday. Highs over the weekend will be close to seasonal at 17 degrees. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Thursday: NW @ 20/25 this afternoon. 

    Friday:  Calm in the morning.   Light Wind in the afternoon. 

    Saturday:  NE @ 20 in the morning.  E @ 20 in the afternoon.

    Sunday:  N @ 20 in the morning. N @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

     

    John's Weather Journal September 12

    I’m watching our weather of course but I also have my eyes on a couple of other places. 

    Edmonton is at zero with a rain/snow mix this morning and a possibility of 2-4cm of accumulating snow. 

    Snow North of Edmonton
     

    It’s hard not to watch what is about to happen along the eastern seaboard of the United States. Hurricane Florence is a monster that will make landfall late Thursday, likely as a Category 4 storm. 

    Hurricane Florence from the ISS
     

    Here, much quieter with a fall-like day. A year ago on this date, we set a high temperature record. It was 34.8 degrees. 

    Looking ahead, I’m expected some showers to start up this evening and carry on overnight. There is a risk of a thunderstorm mixed in. 

    Thursday has the same soggy potential in the morning but the threat of showers tapers off in the afternoon. 

    Friday will likely be foggy in the morning followed by a sun/cloud mix and a seasonally normal high of 19. 

    Generally, temps are cooling toward the weekend and the second half of the weekend looks fairly wet. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Wednesday: E @ 20/30 this afternoon. 

    Thursday:  NW @ 10 in the morning.   N @ 15/20 in the afternoon. 

    Friday:  Calm in the morning.  SE @ 10 in the afternoon.

    Saturday:  NE @ 15/20 in the morning. E @ 10 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal September 11

    The storms I had forecast for this morning really kicked up a fuss in the northern part of the city and in Transcona. 

    Those storms are now hitting the Red Lake area with a warning in effect as of 12:30pm. SE Manitoba is still in a severe thunderstorm watch. 

    Lightning Tracker and warning/watches as of 12:30pm
     

    We may see more showers and storms through the south this afternoon as winds continue to blow into the early evening. 

    Skies clear into Wednesday morning bringing a sunny start to the day. Another low moves this way later in the day so don’t put away the umbrella. 

    I’m expecting more rain Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

    Generally, temps are cooling toward the weekend and the second half of the weekend looks fairly wet. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Tuesday: NW @ 30/40 this afternoon. 

    Wednesday:  NE @ 15/20 in the morning.   E @ 20/30 in the afternoon. 

    Thursday:  NW @ 10/20 in the morning.  N @ 10 in the afternoon.

    Friday:  N @ 10/15 in the morning. N @ 20/25 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal September 10

    We start this work week with a stunning day for this time of year. Get outside at some point and enjoy it, there’s a change coming. 

    The upper flow over western Canada is meandering south and, through the later part of the week, that pattern shifts to the east which means cooler weather for the eastern prairies. 

    In the more immediate future, a low is headed this way for Tuesday which will bring some rain. The best chance for rain on Tuesday across the south is in the morning. Storms are possible as well. 

    Futurecast (RPM Model) Shows the Chance for Rain Tuesday Morning
     

    Winds will be gusty in the morning out of the south and shift to the northwest in the afternoon. 

    The remainder of the week sees daytime highs in the upper teens at best with more rain on Wednesday night into Thursday. 

    Weekend temps are looking even cooler. Time to break the fall clothing. 

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Monday: SW @ 20/30 this afternoon. 

    Tuesday:  S @ 30/60 in the morning.   NW @ 30/40 in the afternoon. 

    Wednesday:  NE @ 20/25 in the morning.  NE @ 20/40 in the afternoon.

    Thursday:  NW @ 15 in the morning. NE @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal September 7

    Friday’s forecast has been changing quite a lot over the last few days. I haven’t had rain in my forecast for this day, but the amount of cloud cover and wind has backed off to just a mix of sun and cloud for this afternoon.

    Overnight, we’ll have an increasing cloud cover leading to a gusty and wet start to the weekend. 

    Not everyone gets the rain, it’ll be spotty. The best chance for rain on Saturday across the south is in the morning hours. 

    Saturday’s winds gust to 60km/h out of the south as low pressure system works it’s way into the eastern prairies to sit right over southern Manitoba on Sunday.

    Saturday sustained winds mid day. They get stronger in the afternoon. Add 20 for the gust factor
     

    I think for the Bomber game on Saturday afternoon, the rain should be out of the way, but the winds will be the dominating feature in our weather. Win the toss coach!

    At this point, Sunday doesn’t look like a complete wash-out but we do have a solid chance for some of that rain to be in the form of thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance for more showers in the afternoon and evening. 

    Monday dries up but more rain is in my long range forecast for the middle of next week.

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Friday: E @ 10/20 this afternoon. 

    Saturday:  S @ 30/50 in the morning.   S @ 40/60 in the afternoon. 

    Sunday:  S @ 30/40 in the morning.  S @ 30/40 in the afternoon.

    Monday:  N @ 10 in the morning. Light Wind in the afternoon.

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