John Sauder weather blog Live

John Sauder, CBC's meteorologist in Manitoba, keeps track of weather moving across the province.

    John's Weather Journal October 26

    As of 1pm, the sun is already starting to show up in areas like Swan River and Dauphin. The intense low that dropped the wet snow and ice on southern Manitoba continues to hammer northwestern Ontario. 

    That western region picked up about 10cms as expected. Winnipeg saw the 1-2cm I was forecasting for the grassy areas. It’ll melt. The east is also in that 10cm range and highways are slick. 

    We are still seeing a few flurries here in the metro but generally, the snow continues to taper off. 

    The wind is still a factor today, gusting to 70km/h. The wind drops off overnight as skies clear.  

    Friday, the sun comes out, and winds remain light. I do see another band of snow Saturday night into Sunday. We could even be dealing with some freezing rain early Sunday morning.   

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Thursday: N @ 40/70 this afternoon.

    Friday: NW @ 10 in the morning . W @ 10 in the afternoon.

    Saturday:  Light Wind in the morning.  SW @ 10/20 in the afternoon.

    Sunday: NW @ 15 in the morning.  NW @ 30/40 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal October 26

    I continue to track an intense low pressure system that is now moving through Manitoba. This one will, again, bring some fairly nasty conditions to the south through Thursday.  

    The transition from rain to snow is happening west to east through Thursday.

    We’ll likely receive 15mm before the change over to wet snow sometime in the morning hours. 

    Projected Rainfall Amounts by 9am Thursday (RPM Model)

    I’m not expecting a whole lot of accumulation in the Winnipeg area but west of the Red River Valley, a few centimetres could coat the ground on Thursday. Farther west, over the higher terrain, we could see 5-10cm accumulate. That includes the Dauphin region. 

    Winds will also be very strong through the day Thursday which will create some fairly challenging driving conditions on highways. 

    Factors that will determine whether highways ice up (or not) include the temperature of the ground in a specific location, how much of the snow sticks to the ground or melts on contact,  and how tires may polish up that road surface if temps are close to, or below freezing. 

    There is potential for warning criteria winds across most of the south, but generally winds will be at 50 gusting to 80 km/h most of the day. 

    Futurecast Showing Rain/Snow Transition Thursday Morning 

    Behind that system on Friday, the sun comes out, and winds drop off.

    Any snow that sticks should melt as we head into the weekend.  

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Thursday: N @ 50/80 in the morning . N @ 50/70 in the afternoon.

    Friday:  NW @ 10 in the morning.  SW @ 10/15 in the afternoon.

    Saturday: Light Wind in the morning.  Light Wind in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal October 25

    I continue to track an intense low pressure system that is now over Saskatchewan moving into Manitoba today. This one will, again, bring some fairly nasty conditions to the south Wednesday night and through Thursday.  

    This system will start to drop rain in the western parklands region Wednesday afternoon, then into the Red River Valley on Wednesday evening. We’ll likely receive 15mm of rain before the transition to wet snow on Thursday morning. 

    Projected Rainfall Amounts by 9am Thursday (RPM Model)

    I’m not expecting a whole lot of accumulation in the Winnipeg area but west of the Red River Valley, a few centimetres could coat the ground on Thursday. Farther west, over the higher terrain, we could see 5-10cm accumulate. That includes the Dauphin region. 

    Winds will also be very strong through the day Thursday which will create some fairly challenging driving conditions on highways. 

    Factors that will determine whether highways ice up (or not) include the temperature of the ground in a specific location, how much of the snow sticks to the ground or melts on contact,  and how tires may polish up that road surface if temps are close to, or below freezing. 

    There is potential for warning criteria winds across most of the south, but generally winds will be at 50 gusting to 80 km/h most of the day. 

    Futurecast Showing Rain/Snow Transition Thursday Morning 

    Behind that system on Friday, the sun comes out, and winds drop off.

    Any snow that sticks should melt as we head into the weekend.  

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Wednesday: SE @ 20 this afternoon.

    Thursday: N @ 50/80 in the morning . N @ 50/70 in the afternoon.

    Friday:  NW @ 10 in the morning.  SW @ 10/15 in the afternoon.

    Saturday: Light Wind in the morning.  Light Wind in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal October 25th

    I continue to track that intense low pressure that will, again, bring some fairly nasty conditions to the south Wednesday night into Thursday.  

    Wednesday is the warm day of the week but the approaching cold front attached to this system moves through early on Thursday morning switching some overnight rain into snow. 

    Futurecast guidance is consistently on track for some snow and wind Thursday:

    That’s not the worst of it. Winds, again, will be very strong behind the low, possibly warning criteria on Thursday (90km/h). 

    It’s not a lot of snow, (2cm) but with winds like that, we could be in for some driving challenges on highways Thursday morning, mainly in the Red River Valley and the southeast. It all depends on the temperature that morning. 

    Behind that system on Friday, the sun comes out, and temps get back closer to seasonal.

    Any snow that sticks should melt as we head into the weekend.  

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Wednesday: NW @ 10 in the morning . SE @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

    Thursday:  N @ 40/60 in the morning.  N @ 50/80 in the afternoon.

    Friday: N @ 30/40 in the morning.  N @ 20/30 in the afternoon

    John's Weather Journal October 24th

    Expect cloudy skies with temps up around 9 degrees later Tuesday. Winds will also drop off a little through the day. 

    I have a chance of showers in my forecast for the evening hours in the Red River Valley. 

    That sprinkle happens along a warm front connected to an intense low pressure that will, again, bring some fairly nasty conditions to the south Wednesday night into Thursday.  

    Wednesday is the warm day of the week but the approaching cold front attached to this system moves through early on Thursday morning switching some overnight rain into snow. 

    Futurecast guidance is consistently on track for some snow and wind Thursday:

    That’s not the worst of it. Winds, again, will be very strong behind the low, possibly warning criteria on Thursday (90km/h). 

    It’s not a lot of snow, (2cm) but with winds like that, we could be in for some driving challenges on highways Thursday morning, mainly in the Red River Valley and the southeast. It all depends on the temperature that morning. 

    Behind that system on Friday, the sun comes out, and temps get back closer to seasonal.

    Any snow that sticks should melt as we head into the weekend.  

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Tuesday: SW @ 15/20 this afternoon.

    Wednesday: NW @ 10 in the morning . SE @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

    Thursday:  N @ 40/60 in the morning.  N @ 50/80 in the afternoon.

    Friday: N @ 30/40 in the morning.  N @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal October 23

    There is a change coming mid week that will serve as a blunt wake-up call. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week and start with sunshine, but an approaching low will bring cloud, rain, even snow into Thursday morning. 

    Futurecast (RPM Model) showing conditions for Thursday morning 

    That’s not the worst of it. Winds again will be very strong, possibly warning criteria on Thursday (90km/h). 

    It’s not a lot of snow, but with winds like that, we could be in for some driving challenges on highways Thursday morning, mainly in the Red River Valley and the southeast. 

    Behind that system on Friday, the sun comes out, and temps get back to seasonal to melt the 2-3cms that fell into Thursday morning. 

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Tuesday: NW @ 20/30 in the morning . W @ 15/20 in the afternoon.

    Wednesday:  W @ 15/20 in the morning.  S @ 25/40 in the afternoon.

    Thursday: NW @ 40/70 in the morning. NW @ 60/80 Mid Day.  NW @ 50/70 in the afternoon.

     

     

    John's Weather Journal October 23

    It’s certainly a cooler week than last. The weekend has been gradually cooling down and now temps across the south are closer to the seasonal normals (-3/7).

    There is a change coming mid week that will serve as a blunt wake-up call. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week and start with sunshine, but an approaching low will bring cloud, rain, even snow into Thursday morning. 

    Futurecast (RPM Model) showing conditions for Thursday morning 

     

    That’s not the worst of it. Winds again will be very strong, possibly warning criteria on Thursday (90km/h). 

    It’s not a lot of snow, but with winds like that, we could be in for some driving challenges on highways Thursday morning, mainly in the Red River Valley and the southeast. 

    Behind that system on Friday, the sun comes out, and temps get back to seasonal to melt the 2-3cms that fell into Thursday morning. 

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Monday: NW @ 30/50 this afternoon.

    Tuesday: NW @ 20/30 in the morning . W @ 15/20 in the afternoon.

    Wednesday:  W @ 15/20 in the morning.  S @ 25/40 in the afternoon.

    Thursday: NW @ 40/70 in the morning. NW @ 60/80 Mid Day.  NW @ 50/70 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal October 20

    We have potential to break temperature records here in the southern part of the province today. I’m forecasting a high of 23 in Winnipeg but if we get past 23.9, we’ll break a record that is 59 years old. (1958)

    1:00 pm Conditions at YWG:

    Expect lots of sunshine today, and lots of wind. Winds will be gusting to 50 or 60km/h out of the south this afternoon. 

    Looking ahead, and it seems we’ll string together 3 or 4 days with some windy conditions. (this aft, Sat eve, Sun aft and Monday)

    As we head into the weekend, temps are still mild but there’s a lot more cloud over us. Saturday has a few sunny breaks and there is a slight chance of a sprinkle east of the Red River Valley in the morning, then across the rest of the south in the late afternoon. 

    On Sunday, we start with sunshine, then see the cloud roll back in through the afternoon. Expect some evening showers here in the southeast including in the Red River Valley. 

    Monday is a mainly cloudy day with some sunny breaks and, again, a slight chance of a shower. Temps next week will be closer to seasonal normals. 

    I’m also tracking another low moving into northern Manitoba over the weekend that will bring some rain and snow with it. Most of the snow will be in the northwest Saturday into Sunday. 

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Friday: S @ 30/50 this afternoon.

    Saturday: S @ 25 in the morning . W @ 25/40 in the afternoon. (30/50 in the evening)

    Sunday:  S @ 15 in the morning.  SW @ 30/50 in the afternoon.

    Monday: W @ 20/25 in the morning. NW @ 30/50 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal for October 19

    Even though it will be a little on the breezy side across the south today, it’ll feel calm compared to yesterday. 

    It’s also warming up. Most of us in the south will be right back into shorts weather as we approach the weekend. 

    Thursday we are back up around 18 degrees and Friday will be even milder with highs across the south near 23 or 24 degrees. 

    Expect mid teens for the weekend and a slight chance of a passing shower on Saturday. 

    In the north, the Churchill region is still seeing some light snow today with temps just above the freezing mark. The blizzard warning has ended and winds will drop off tonight. 

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Thursday: S @ 25/30 this afternoon.

    Friday: SE @ 20/30 in the morning . S @ 30/50 in the afternoon.

    Saturday:  S @ 30/40 in the morning.  SW @ 30/40 in the afternoon.

    Sunday: SW @ 25/30 in the morning. SW @ 25/30 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal for October 18

    The wind warning is still in effect (as of noon) for the entire bottom half of the province including the Red River Valley, with the exception of the extreme southwest corner of the province. 

    Here's a snapshot of the winds in a few places at the top of the noon hour: 

    Some gusts up to 110 km/h have been reported in the Dauphin area and to the leeward side of the Duck and Riding mountains. 
     
    This intense low pressure system continues to deliver snow and very windy conditions to northern Manitoba as well. Brochet, Tadoule Lake and Churchill regions are still in blizzard warning with up to 20cms of snow along with winds gusting to 90km/h today. 
     
    Once this nastiness pulls off to the east, most of us in the south will be right back into shorts weather as we approach the weekend. 
     
    Thursday we are back up around 18 degrees and Friday will be similar to Tuesday at 21 degrees. 
     
    Expect mid teens for the weekend and a slight chance of a passing shower on Saturday. 

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Wednesday: W @ 50/80 this afternoon.

    Thursday: SE @ 10 in the morning . S @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

    Friday:  SSE @ 20/30 in the morning.  S @ 30/40 in the afternoon.

    Saturday: NW @ 20 the morning. NW @ 30/40 in the afternoon.

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