John Sauder weather blog Live

John Sauder, CBC's meteorologist in Manitoba, keeps track of weather moving across the province.

    John's Weather Journal March 7

    Looking back for a second, temps yesterday where there was no snowfall for that Colorado Low (east) were about 6 or 7 degrees warmer than the farmland areas that are covered in fresh snow. 

    Fresh snow reflects much of the incoming solar radiation so temperatures in the daytime really struggle. Expect a high of -5 in Winnipeg this afternoon.  

    Over the next couple of days, we have seasonal temps with varying amounts of cloud and sun. 

    There is a weak disturbance that will bring some flurries or light snow Friday night and through most of Saturday but it will be wet flurries with a high of 0 on Saturday.   

    John's 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Wednesday:  NW @ 20 this afternoon. 

    Thursday: SW @ 10 in the morning.   S @ 10 in the afternoon. 

    Friday:  SE @ 15 in the morning.  SE @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

    Saturday:  SE @ 20/25 in the morning.  SE @ 10 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal March 6

    You can sure tell the sun angles are changing. At -10 degrees this morning in the sunshine, snow was melting and dripping off rooftops. 

    The new snow on the ground here in the Red River Valley and west, will reflect much of the sun’s rays and keep us at about -4 to -5 today. 

    Over the next couple of days, we have seasonal temps with varying amounts of cloud and sun. 

    There is a weak disturbance that will bring some flurries or light snow Friday night and through most of Saturday but it will be wet flurries with a high of 0 on Saturday.   

     

    Updated 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Tuesday:  NW @ 20/25 this afternoon. 

    Wednesday: Light Wind in the morning.   NW @ 20 in the afternoon. 

    Thursday:  NW @ 10 in the morning.  NW @ 10 in the afternoon.

    Friday:  SE @ 10 in the morning.  SE @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal March 5

    And the dig out starts. Conditions are starting to improve in the Red River Valley gradually this afternoon. We’ve had between 18 and 20 cms here in the metro, more like 30cms closer to the Saskatchewan border. 

    Some of the highways are opening again and the wind is dropping off. 

    Additional snowfall will amount to a couple more centimetres for the Winnipeg area and perhaps another 5 or more in the west. It’s all circulating up from the southeast. Winnipeg and Steinbach are right on the edge of that main band of snow. 

    Mid Day Satellite/Radar Image
     

    Skies will clear from east to west this evening. Don’t often see that. 

    Tuesday will be brighter, especially in the morning. Wednesday, there is a chance of a flurry or two in the afternoon, otherwise, a mix of sun and cloud. 

    Highs across the south over the next few days will be between -4 and -6 then we start to get milder again for the weekend. 

    Updated 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Monday:  E @ 30/50 this afternoon. 

    Tuesday: NE @ 10 in the morning.   NW @ 20 in the afternoon. 

    Wednesday:  NW @ 10 in the morning.  NW @ 20/25 in the afternoon.

    Thursday:  S @ 10/15 in the morning.  S @ 20/25 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal March 2

    I’m sure you have heard me say, or read it here, that there is a snow storm setting up to hit southern Manitoba Sunday night and through Monday 

    I continue to track this Colorado Low that will be preceded by a few bands of snow and slush on the weekend. 

    It’s important to know that weekend snowfall amounts are not all that impressive. 2-4cm of snow (at times mixed with rain) will fall across the south.

    We’ll likely see higher amounts in the higher terrain in western sections of the province due to the easterly wind and upsloping effect. 

    The heavier snow will start as the Colorado Low starts to move up from the south on Sunday night. 

    There is still a lot of forecast variability in the track and speed of this developing system which affects my confidence in my snowfall prediction. Right now, it looks like 15-25cm will cover your sidewalk by Monday evening.

    Futurecast: Monday Morning (RPM Model)
     

    Travel on highways Monday will likely be affected with snow and wind combining for some pretty challenging conditions. 

    Another possibility early next week is the system stalling to our east. That would mean additional snow on Tuesday. My confidence is pretty low for that scenario at this time. 

    This is all followed by a temperature reality check next week. 

    Updated 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Friday:  NE @ 10 this afternoon. 

    Saturday: NE @ 20/30 in the morning.   E @ 25/40 in the afternoon. 

    Sunday:  E @ 20/25 in the morning.  E @ 20 in the afternoon.

    Monday:  E @ 25/40 in the morning.  E @ 25/40 in the afternoon.

    This Special Weather Statement sound a lot like the blog I wrote this morning - see previous post.

    Major winter storm possible beginning Sunday evening and persisting through Monday.

    Southern Manitoba may see the first major winter storm of the season as a complex weather system develops over the coming days, culminating in a potent Colorado Low that is forecast to spread heavy snow northwards.

    The predictability of this system is still quite low, so be sure to watch for updated statements, watches, warnings, and forecasts as the weekend progresses. This weather system will have the potential to produce major travel disruptions.

    Southern Manitoba will see multiple batches of snow over the coming days as this storm develops. The first is forecast to occur on Friday night into Saturday morning. Snow is forecast to develop in North Dakota, then lift northwards through southern Manitoba. Amounts with this band of snow are forecast to remain low, with general accumulations of up to 4 centimetres.

    For areas in the Parkland eastwards across the Interlake towards the Ontario border, a more sustained snowfall event will begin on Saturday as the snow that moves through on Friday night will join with an area of snow moving eastwards out of Saskatchewan. General accumulations of 2 to 4 centimetres are forecast at this time, however portions of the Riding Mountains could see substantially more as easterly winds will enhance the snowfall rates.

    The main event will occur Sunday night into Monday. A strong Colorado Low is forecast to begin spreading snow northwards into southern Manitoba by Sunday evening, rapidly intensifying as the night progresses. This heavy snow is forecast to continue through Monday, then begin to gradually diminish on Monday night into Tuesday. Snowfall totals are forecast to be significant. While it's too early to be too specific, current guidance suggests a high probability of storm total snowfall amounts of 15 to 30 centimetres.

    Wind of 30 to 40 km/h will combine with heavy snow and give reduced visibilities in blowing snow. Travel on highways will likely be impacted.

    This is a complex weather system that will continue to evolve and develop over the coming days. Continue to check for updated statements, alerts, and forecasts over the coming days for additional details.

    John's Weather Journal March 1

    You will want to get outside today. Sunshine, light winds, milder temperatures, a perfect recipe for putting a smile on your face and a spring in your step. 

    With some melting today and light winds and clear skies tonight, there is plenty of surface moisture to produce some fog overnight into Friday morning. 

    Visibility could be low enough to produce tricky driving conditions for the morning commute. 

    Visibility Forecast for Early Friday
     

    That smile I was talking about, well, Mother Nature may take that away over the weekend. 

    I’m tracking a messy Colorado Low that will gradually start to affect us on Saturday afternoon and evening. 

    Accumulations are going to be hard to predict initially due to the surface temperatures as the snow gets going.

    On Saturday, people will be wondering “where is this thing John has been talking about all week?” 

    It will be slow to get going on Saturday with some wet snow (some melting) on Saturday aft/eve. The main band will be to the north of Winnipeg on Saturday. 

    Then Sunday we see more wet snow mixing with some rain. The question is, how much melts and how much sticks as wet snow? 

    Sunday evening and overnight into Monday, then through the day on Monday is when the winds get going, the temp starts to drop and the snow starts to pile up. 

    I think we could get 15-25cm but mostly later in the event which is Sunday night and through Monday. I’ll start nailing down some amounts on Friday. 

    So the message is; enjoy today’s weather but don’t put away your shovel (or snowblower) just yet.  

    Updated 7-Day Forecast
     

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Thursday:  SW @ 10 this afternoon. 

    Friday: Light Wind in the morning.   E @ 20/25 in the afternoon. 

    Saturday:  E @ 25/40 in the morning.  E @ 20/25 in the afternoon.

    Sunday:  NW @ 15/20 in the morning.  NW @ 25/40 in the afternoon.

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