John Sauder weather blog Live

John Sauder, CBC's meteorologist in Manitoba, keeps track of weather moving across the province.

    John's Weather Journal December 9

    Another very mild today day after yesterday's record setter. Including Winnipeg, there were over 20 new record highs across the province, including northern Manitoba. Winnipeg reached 6.7 degrees. 
    Today, we'll shoot for 5 degrees and the record is - again - 5.6 set only 5 years ago in 2015. 
    Now, let's discuss the changeable system headed our way tonight into Thursday. This is a fast moving clipper that will combine rain with freezing rain and snow into the late evening and overnight period. Yesterday afternoon, the models were leaning toward about 6cm for the Winnipeg area by Thursday afternoon. Now, the consensus is leaning more toward the rain side of things. If more of this precip falls as rain or freezing rain, that will mean less in the way of snow accumulation. When that change from rain or frzg rain to snow occurs will make all the difference in how much we'll be shoveling on Thursday. The latest model guidance from the GRAF model indicates 6mm of rain or frzg rain and 0cm of snow up to 4pm Thursday. That's for the Winnipeg area. 
    There will be an update to this guidance in the afternoon on Wednesday and it will be interesting to see if there are any changes to these projections. 
    GRAF Model: No snow accumulation up to 4pm Thursday
    GRAF Model: 6mm rain up to 4pm Thursday
    Going forward, our weather starts a return to something that will feel a little more like the season. Weekend temps will be much closer to seasonal normals which are -19 for a low and -9 for a daytime high. 
    John's 7-Day Forecast
    Wednesday: SW @ 10/20 this afternoon.  
    Thursday:  NW @ 30/40 in the morning. NW @ 30/40 in the afternoon. 
    Friday: S @ 10 in the morning.  S @ 10 in the afternoon. 
    Saturday: E @ 10/20 in the morning.  E @ 10/20 in the afternoon.
  • John's Weather Journal December 8

    It's official. Warmest day in Winnipeg since record keeping began about 150 years ago. The 1pm temp at YWG is 6.1 so that beats the old record of 5.6 set back in 1928 and in 1939.  We are 15 degrees warmer than normal right now. We will see several records fall today with highs out west pushing 10 degrees in spots like McCreary and Morden. That is typical in a westerly flow due to downsloping air off the Pembina escarpment and Riding Mountain. 
    Even in the north, we have temps that are well above seasonal and breaking records. Lynn Lake broke a high temperature record early this morning. 
    Here is a look at the 1:00pm temps across the south. 
    Temperatures at 1:00pm Tuesday
    Now, things are going to change and there will be some snow. 
    I tracking a system heading our way for Wednesday night that looks to be tracking a little farther north than what was indicated in previous guidance. Count on at least a few centimetres of snow into Thursday morning with additional flurries in the afternoon. It's not a lot of snow but will help to get some winter activities going. 
    The weather that follows is much cooler as you can see in the 7 day forecast. 
    John's 7-Day Forecast
    Tuesday: SW @ 10 this afternoon.  
    Wednesday:  W @ 20/30 in the morning. W @ 20 in the afternoon. 
    Thursday: NW @ 10/20 in the morning.  NW @ 20/30 in the afternoon. 
    Friday: NW @ 10 in the morning.  N @ 10/15 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal December 7

    Okay let's start the week with a look back at some of these crazy gorgeous sunsets over the mild weekend. Here's one my friend took on Saturday.
    Saturday Sunset in Winnipeg
    Today we are dealing with dense fog in the southeast and a freezing rain warning across the Tadoule Lake region in the north.
    Fog Advisory early Monday
    Freezing Rain Warning early Monday
    The mild and dry conditions continue for the first half of this week. These aren't quite record setting temperatures today (close though). On Tuesday, the old record high for Winnipeg is 5.6 set back in 1928 and 1939. I'm forecasting a high of 5 degrees for Tuesday.
    There is a change in the temperature pattern scheduled for the weekend. See the chilly numbers below in the long range forecast. 
    I also see a chance for some snow Thursday night and Friday. 
    John's 7-Day Forecast
    Monday: SW @ 10 this afternoon.  
    Tuesday:  W @ 20 in the morning. SW @ 10 in the afternoon. 
    Wednesday: W @ 20/30 in the morning.  NW @ 30/40 in the afternoon. 
    Thursday: NW @ 10/20 in the morning.  NW @ 10/20 in the afternoon.
  • John's Weather Journal December 3

    We reached 4 degrees in Winnipeg on Wednesday. Not a record but still 11 degrees above seasonal. Today we get to 2 degrees in the sunshine and the mild weather stays through the weekend and into the first half of next week.
    Friday will be slightly cooler with a daytime high that stays below zero, but winds will be light all day.
    The only snow I see in our future is on Thursday next week. That's the Canadian model. The European model, which is typically really good with long range forecasts, doesn't have that snow. 
    I'll be watching that situation closely. Judging from what I'm hearing on social media, I think the team that wants snow is larger than the team that doesn't. That's not a scientific analysis, just an observation. 
    John's 7-Day Forecast
    Thursday: NW @ 15/20 this afternoon.  
    Friday:  Light wind in the morning. Light wind in the evening. 
    Saturday: SW @ 10/20 in the morning.  W @ 15 in the afternoon. 
    Sunday: NW @ 20/30 in the morning.  N @ 10 in the afternoon.
  • John's Weather Journal December 2

    I have already had to bump today's high up by several degrees. Expect a balmy 4 this afternoon in Winnipeg. The sunshine will stick around as well. Skies stay clear tonight and through the next couple of days as well. The only mention I have of snow in my long range forecast is on Wednesday next week. 
    All of this mild weather has prompted MPI to send out a warning about thin ice. Did you know, in the last 5 years, 60 vehicles have broken through thin ice in December and in spring. Ice should be over 7 inches (about 18cm) thick to support a small car or light truck, and more than 10 inches (25cm) thick to support a medium sized truck. It's not that thick yet, especially with all of the mild weather we've had lately. 
    In the north today, a few flurries or  slight chance of some light snow, mostly in eastern regions. Tomorrow will also be a fairly quiet and mild day in the north. 
    John's 7-Day Forecast
    Wednesday: SW @ 20/30 this afternoon.  
    Thursday:  NW @ 15 in the morning. NW @ 15/20 in the evening. 
    Friday: Light wind in the morning.  Light wind in the afternoon. 
    Saturday: NW @ 20/25 in the morning.  NW @ 20/25 in the afternoon.
  • John's Weather Journal December 1

    If I was to describe this week's weather in a word, the word would be quiet. Lots of sun, a little bit of cloud, mild and not much in the way of wind. See the 7-Day Forecast below. 
    November 2020 is in the books as a very dry month. Winnipeg received just 4.7mm of precipitation in November. That's the 8th driest on record. 
    By the way, this knowledge isn't floating around in my head. I must give credit to my friend Rob Paola who is a retired meteorologist who takes on the task of gathering these stats. 
    As of November 30th, Winnipeg had received 257mm of precipitation for 2020. The driest year on record was 1961 with 321mm total. The first 10 days of December look very dry so Winnipeg is on track for the driest year on record. 
    These numbers are for Winnipeg specifically for comparison sake. It's important to note that the southern Red River Valley, SE Manitoba and Westman all had wetter years than Winnipeg did. 
    November 2020 was the 13th consecutive month with below normal precipitation in Winnipeg. Remember the snowstorm in October 2019? 
    We use a 30 year data period for what is considered 'normal'. Right now that period is from 1981 to 2010. In that period, January is our snowiest month. If you look at just the last 20 years though, December has been our snowiest month. We would have to get hit with some significant snowfalls to not set a record for the driest year in the Winnipeg area. 
    John's 7-Day Forecast
    Tuesday: S @ 15/20 this afternoon.  
    Wednesday:  NW @ 10 in the morning. W @ 15/25 in the evening. 
    Thursday: W @ 10/15 in the morning.  SW @ 10 in the afternoon. 
    Friday: Light wind in the morning.  Light wind in the afternoon.
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