John Sauder weather blog Live

John Sauder, CBC's meteorologist in Manitoba, keeps track of weather moving across the province.

    John's Weather Journal January 14

    We have a variety of warnings and advisories in effect as of noon Thursday. Everything from Snowfall Warnings in the north to Blowing Snow Advisories and Freezing Rain warnings in the south. 
    This intense low pressure system will continue to work its way east today. Ahead of the system is a band of freezing rain which, through mid day, is moving into Ontario. To the west, behind the cold front, winds are extremely strong which will coincide with the falling snow. We can expect wind gusts here in Manitoba of 60 or 70 km/h along with 3 to 5cm of snow accumulation later this afternoon and into this evening. Expect lower visibilites in blowing snow in open areas well into the evening and overnight period. 
    In the north (Thompson), snowfall totals will be closer to 10-15cm through the day today. That is where we have the Snowfall Warning in effect.
    Behind this system, much cooler weather moves in. As I have been saying all week, temps will fall through the day on Friday as snow tapers to flurries and winds continue to gust, especially early in the day. We'll start the day here in Winnipeg at -7 and end up at around -9 by the afternoon. Winds will continue to diminish on Friday evening. 
    Warnings and Advisories as of noon Thursday
    John's 7-Day Forecast
    Thursday: NW @ 40/60 this afternoon.  
    Friday:  NW @ 30/60 in the morning.  NW @ 30/40 in the afternoon.
    Saturday: Light in the morning.  S @ 10/15 in the afternoon.
    Sunday: NW @ 10 in the morning.  N @ 20/30 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal January 13

    I'm going to come right out at the start of this blog and say that this approaching clipper is NOT going to be a big snow producer here in the Red River Valley. There are a couple of reasons. There will be some 'melt on contact' snow on Thursday and it likely doesn't ramp up until the afternoon and evening. There is also the question of how much moisture is left in the system as it makes its way east. As the trough stalls to the east side of the province later on Thursday into Friday, snowfall amounts could be higher - more like 5-10cm. In the Red River Valley, we may get just 2-3cm. 
    The bigger story surrounding this approaching weather is the heavy winds. We currently have a wind warning in effect for the southwest corner of the province (as of noon Wednesday). It talks about wind gusts tonight as high as 90 km/h which is the threshold for a wind warning. To the west in Saskatchewan today, winds could get as high as 110 km/h today.
    There are also warnings and watches west of MB for freezing rain, heavy snow, and winter storm conditions. In Flin Flon and The Pas, we have a winter storm watch in effect. 
    Expect a band of rain or freezing rain Wednesday evening though the Red River Valley. Freezing rain will depend of the surface temperature at the time the front moves through the region. 
    Winds are strong Thursday but blowing snow may not be an issue due to the temperatures being so mild. We may still see reduced visibility in snow squalls. Remains to be seen.
    On Friday, there is a higher chance of blowing snow with flurries and strong winds continuing along with colder temps. 
    John's 7-Day Forecast
    Futurecast - GRAF model shows a sporadic snowfall on Thursday afternoon
    Wednesday: SE @ 20 this afternoon.  
    Thursday:  NW @ 30/50 in the morning.  NW @ 40/60 in the afternoon.
    Friday: NW @ 40/60 in the morning.  NW @ 30/50 in the afternoon.
    Saturday: S @ 10 in the morning.  S @ 10/15 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal January 12

    If you are enjoying the mild weather of late, you'll have a couple more days to take advantage of the break from our normal January freeze. There is a clipper on the way though and it will start to affect this region Wednesday night with some rain showers or freezing rain. Then we might have a bit of a break until Thursday afternoon and evening when the snowy side of the system wraps around into southern Manitoba. The amount of snow is dependant on a couple of things: how much melts on contact on Thursday with temps around -1,  and the speed of the clipper once it settles in over Manitoba.
    This system could produce much higher amounts to the north - more like 15-20cms near Thompson Wednesday night through Friday. Here in the south, flurries or light snow continues on Friday. 
    Wind is the other part of the story. Expect very windy conditions on Thursday and gusty winds on Friday as well. Friday, there is a higher probability of blowing snow because temps will be colder and the snow won't stick to the ground as much. 
    John's 7-Day Forecast
    Futurecast showing the band of rain or frzg rain Wed Eve
    Tuesday: SW @ 15/20 this afternoon.  
    Wednesday:  SE @ 10 in the morning.  SE @ 20/25 in the afternoon.
    Thursday: W @ 50/70 in the morning.  W @ 50/70 in the afternoon.
    Friday: NW @ 40/60 in the morning.  NW @ 30/40 in the afternoon.
  • John's Weather Journal January 11

    Fog starts our Monday with visibility dropping to a couple of kilometres or less around mid day.  If this fog doesn't dissipate this afternoon, it's unlikely we'll reach -1.  Under clear skies tonight, more fog is possible. 
    If you are one of the many who are enjoying the break from our typical January weather, you'll like hearing that we have a few more days of this. By the weekend, that all changes. 
    Wednesday is the warm day of the week with potential for an above freezing temp in the afternoon. We could even see rain showers in the evening as a clipper sets up to the west, ready to pounce on us on Thursday. 
    Expect snow and wind on Thursday. Early guidance has southern Manitoba in the 5-10cm range however, at -1, some of that will melt on contact so snow amounts will be difficult to nail down ahead of time. Some of the guidance has winds gusting to 80 km/h early in the day. I have us at 50 gusting to 70 km/h through the morning and afternoon on Thursday. 
    Friday temps will start mild but fall through the day Then it's back to a more typical January weather pattern, a reality check for sure. 
    John's 7-Day Forecast
    Monday: SW @ 10/15 this afternoon.  
    Tuesday:  S @ 15 in the morning.  W @ 20/25 in the afternoon.
    Wednesday: S @ 15/20 in the morning.  S @ 20/25 in the afternoon.
    Thursday: W @ 50/70 in the morning.  W @ 50/70 in the afternoon.

    John's Weather Journal January 7

    Fog in the west this morning was thick. Visibility in Brandon dropped to just 200 metres last evening in freezing fog. In Winnipeg, our visibility dropped to 800 metres this morning at 9am. Those are both airport observations. There is a chance of fog again tonight with a stagnant airmass in place and another risk of fog on Friday night into Saturday morning. 
    Fog is never "for sure" because it's difficult to forecast. You call for fog when conditions are right - low level moisture, light wind, cooling into the evening. What is "for sure" is the mild trend continuing through the weekend and into next week. 
    There is a trough passing through the region tonight into Friday morning that may give a few flurries tonight and into early Friday. Not much accumulation to be had though. 
    Looking way ahead and I do see a chance for some snow on Thursday next week followed by a cool down toward the next weekend. 
    John's 7-Day Forecast
    Thursday: S @ 20/40 this afternoon.  
    Friday:  S @ 10 in the morning.  Light wind in the afternoon.
    Saturday: Light wind in the morning.  SW @ 10 in the afternoon.
    Sunday: S @ 10/15 in the morning.  S @ 15/20 in the afternoon.
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