First of all, sorry for the delay... instead of some tasty chocolate eggs, the Easter Bunny has delivered to me a brutal Spring flu. As a result, I'm slow out of bed and getting into gear today.
I just wanted to give you a quick update, our system not only tracked in a little late today, but it appears is no where near what the forecast models were projecting.
Ahhhh NL Weather.... tough to predict at the best of times, but especially when the forecast models are so badly off the mark.
OK, show of hands, who's disappointed??? ..... Crickets.... I though so :)
The grass is white again here at my place, but based on what I'm seeing now, much of Southeastern Newfoundland, including Metro is into a bit of a dry slot for this afternoon with cloudy skies and some patchy flurries & freezing drizzle on tap. Metro is likely to see some flurries wrapping back in for this evening & tonight with some light accumulation possible: Trace-2 cm.
It appears the Northwest Avalon to Bonavista Bay, including Clarenville, Terra Nova & Gander still have potential to see some Snow accumulating this afternoon & evening and could pick up 4-8 cm.
Easter Sunday & Monday still look cool & bright across NL.
Ok, gotta go. My wife is ordering my sick rear end back to the couch... I better listen :)
We're still seeing some fairly good agreement between the forecast models, which bring Snow, Ice Pellets, Freezing Rain & even some Rain into Southeastern Newfoundland, including Metro for Saturday.
The 8-15 cm zone still appears to be from the Northern Avalon back through Clarenville, Terra Nova, Bonavista Bay & Gander, then South to the Burin Peninsula.
The best chance of seeing amounts near 15 cm will be right along that Northeast Coast from the Northwest Avalon to Bonavista Bay.
St. John's Metro will see Snow beginning in the morning, ramping up mid-day and then mixing to Ice Pellets & Freezing Rain in the late afternoon hours, before mixing back to light snow Saturday Evening. With that mixing late day, Snow totals for Metro still look like they will be in the 8-12 cm range, through Saturday night.
Over the Southern Avalon, more Ice Pellets, Freezing Rain & Rain mixing will keep amounts lower, 3-8 cm.
Winds will increase through the day on Saturday with gusts to 50 km/h and then peak overnight and into Sunday morning with gusts in the 60 km/h range, before easing through the day on Sunday.
Just a few lingering flurries on Sunday along the Northeast Coast, but overall a good travel day across the Province with some Sunshine building back in. Highs near freezing across the Island.
More details of course this Evening on Here & Now. We have a special 30 minute show from 6:00-6:30 NT, so be sure to tune in!
Quick Evening Update
I just wanted to pass along a quick update on our Saturday system.
This afternoon's model runs are coming into better agreement with our system, with the Canadian model finally backing off on it's Snowfall amounts and looking similar to the American GFS & European model runs.
So.... if the current model ideas hold tight, then I think the highest Snowfall amounts should land in that 8-15 cm range from the Northern Avalon to Clarenville, Bonavista Bay, Terra Nova, back to Gander, then South to the Northern Burin Peninsula and Fortune Bay.
St. John's Metro will see Snow, but it appears will also likely see some mixing with Ice Pellets & Freezing Rain, which should keep amounts lower, anywhere from 8 to 12 cm, depending on just how much warm air & mixing we see.
With more mixing of Ice Pellets, Freezing Rain & Rain over the Southern Avalon, amounts will be even lower (3-8 cm). Again, things clear out overnight and into Easter Sunday morning.
Your Snowfall map has been posted below. Again we're still 36 hours from the first flakes, I'll keep an eye on any possible changes overnight and pass along the latest information on Friday!
Ho-Ho-Ho Merry Easter indeed!
Hard to believe after the past 2 days of temps into the double digits and teens we're talking about SNOW for Easter Weekend!
Forecast models continue to shuffle with both the track and strength of our Weekend system, which will spread Snow into Newfoundland beginning Saturday morning, continuing into Saturday afternoon, before kicking out overnight and into Easter Sunday morning.
The overnight model runs are further South with the track, which means we would likely still see a mix of Snow, Ice Pellets & Freezing Rain in the Southeast, but there would be less mixing. As of now, the 'Mostly Snow & Heaviest Snow' zone looks set to fall from the Northern Avalon (bordering St. John's Metro) and back into Clarenville, the Bonavista Peninsula, Terra Nova & back down to the Burin Peninsula. Snow amounts drop off as you move into Central & the South Coast, with the West Coast & Northern Peninsula currently looking at a grazing of light snow for Saturday into Sunday. Again, this is assuming the current track holds and we've been seeing quite a bit of shuffling over the past few days.
Then there's the question of how much Snow. The overnight runs backed off on the strength of the system, with the American GFS & European models now currently in the 8-15 cm range for those who see that heaviest swath of Snow... while the juicer looking Canadian model is now projecting totals in the 15-20 cm range.
-More mixing to Ice Pellets & Freezing Rain & even some Rain would mean less Snowfall over the Southern Avalon and that may end up being the case for St. John's Metro as well. Again, its all about the track of the low, which has yet to be nailed down. Stay tuned.-
Either way... Saturday will be a messy day for St. John's, Eastern Newfoundland & into Central as well. Those travelling on the roads should expect snowy & icy conditions into Saturday night. Winds will be picking up through Saturday as well, so blowing snow & reduced visibility will be on the menu, especially for those who stay all Snow.
We're currently set to clear out on Easter Sunday morning with some lingering flurries, but it will be a much better travel day. Tomorrow (Good Friday) looks good for travelling on the roads as well.
Another update with your Tonight, Friday & Weekend forecasts, this evening on Here & Now, 5:30 pm NT.