COLD SLOWLY RETREATS
We're almost there. Our cold temperatures continue today and tonight will be another chilly one across NL, however we'll see Southwesterly winds (30-50 km/h) develop across the Island on Thursday (Westerly winds for Labrador) which will be bringing in some slightly milder temps. We'll still be sitting below average across NL on Thursday however, with highs near -3° in the East, -6° in Central & -8° in the West we'll feel a noticeable difference. Highs in Labrador will range from -7° in the Southeast, to -14° in the West & North. The other great part about Thursday will be the Sunshine on the menu for everyone. Chance of flurries from Lab City in the morning to HV-GB & the Straits in the afternoon & evening.
Environment Canada has issued a Special Weather Statement for Newfoundland & now Southeastern Labrador as we prepare for our next Storm, which will track in up the West Coast on Friday, with lots of weather gifts for Valentines Day... Wind, Snow, Rain and likely some Ice Pellets & Freezing Rain mixing in between. Current projections have Snow moving into Southwestern Newfoundland in the very early morning hours on Friday and then spreading across the Island through the morning. The South Coast & the Burin & the Avalon will be the first to change over to Rain as warmer air spreads in. That warm air will spread into Central Newfoundland changing the Snow to Rain through the afternoon hours. It appears Corner Brook/Gros Morne & Northwestern portions of the Island will also see some rain or drizzle mixing in by Friday evening, however not before what looks to be a significant shot of Snowfall. Southeastern Labrador looks set to see all Snow, in what will likely be a solid shot as well.
CHECK OUT THE LATEST 12Z RPM MODEL PROJECTION FOR A GENERAL TIMELINE & BREAKDOWN.
My first crack at the Snowfall map is posted below. Amounts look set to range from 5-10 cm range for the Avalon and closer to 15 cm for the Burin, Clarenville & Bonavista before mixing to Rain. The heaviest snow looks set for Northwestern Newfoundland, the Northern Peninsula & into Southeastern Labrador where 20-30 cm is currently looking possible. Central & down into Southwestern Newfoundland will be a difficult call, with timing of the change from Snow to Rain & how much ice mixes in are some important factors. Right now anywhere between 15-25 cm looks possible. Rainfall amounts will highest along the South Coast and then across the Avalon where we could see 15-30 mm of Rain.
WINDS will be a big story with this system with Gusts 100+ km/h currently looking set for much of Coastal Newfoundland on Friday. Gusts could exceed 120 km/h along the South Coast & over Southeastern Newfoundland on Friday. Winds shift to Southwest on Friday night into Saturday and Southeast Newfoundland will again are looking at with gusts 100+ km/h looking set again.
I'll be watching this system closely over the next 24 hours as it works up the Coastline. Once we see what kind of damage it's doing to our South & get a better look at how strong it might get, I will be able to pass along more details & exact amounts as forecast models come into better agreement on exactly what we can expect.
SUNDAY STORM Yet another Storm looks set to track into Newfoundland on Sunday with more strong Winds, Snow & yes Rain also looks set to be in the mix again. Forecast models are still trying to figure this system out and what it's exact track may be.