From

Ryan Snoddon

  • MONDAY MORNING UPDATE
    Good Morning!
    Ya sure thing, you say... :)
    After plenty of dancing over the past few days between the forecast models (have a look at Rodney's post below) today's system now looks set to bring a a solid shot of Snow to the Avalon.
    -For St. John's Metro, the Southern Shore and the Southeast Avalon, solid 15-20 cm of Snow will fall by Tuesday morning. The bulk of that Snow (15+ cm) will fall by 9pm this evening, with a few lingering cm overnight.
    -The Western half of the Avalon now looks set for 10-15 cm by Tuesday morning.
    -Further West, the Burin, Clarenville & Bonavista, Terra Nova, Gander, the Bay of Ex, GFW & South through the Coast of Bays will all likely pick up 5-10 cm by this Evening, with another 2-5 cm blowing in behind the system overnight into Tuesday morning.
    -With the further West track, there's a good chance the Eastern Avalon, including Metro will see some mixing to Ice Pellets & even some freezing rain as the centre of low crawls just off the Coastline.
    -Northeasterly Winds wrapping in behind the low will be gusting near 50 km/h over Eastern Newfoundland this afternoon, so expect not just Snow on the roads, but some blowing Snow for the drive home this evening. Winds pick up overnight when we could see Gusts 60-70 km/h overnight and continuing into Tuesday morning.

    STORM FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
    Still looking at a powerful Storm for most NL Wednesday into Thursday.
    This will be a very deep & strong low. You've likely heard me refer to Storms as a "Weather Bomb" before... which is a strong rapidly developing storm that sees a central barometric pressure drop of 24mb in just 24hrs. Well, this Storm looks set to be a "Double Bomb" with models projecting a near 50mb drop in 24 hours!!!
    The Storm will roll up the Eastern Seaboard Tuesday into Wednesday, rolling into Newfoundland with Snow & Wind, Wednesday afternoon & evening, before spreading into Labrador Wednesday night.
    Based on the current track, most of Southeastern Newfoundland & Metro should see change over to Rain on Wednesday night, perhaps even up into parts of Central. Western sections will be mainly Snow and it's all Snow for Central & Coastal Labrador. It's still a little early to talk about specific amounts, with some disagreement in the forecast models, however most are projecting Snowfall amounts in 15+ cm range for Western parts of the Island at this point, with some in the 20-30+ range for parts of the West. Amounts will be more difficult to nail down for Metro & Southeast, where the Snow to Rain transition time being the key.
    Wednesday's Storm will be bring some impressive Winds. Our rapidly deepening, rapidly strengthening Storm will be packing Wind Gusts well over 100+ km/h. Again, we're still a few days out but forecast models are 'currently' projecting Gusts in the 110-130+ km/h range for parts of the Island, as the Storm rolls in Wednesday evening/overnight.
    We're also going to be looking at pounding surf along the South Coast of the Island beginning Wednesday night.
    I can't stress enough, with the Storm only just developing in the Gulf of Mexico today and really taking shape along the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday, we'll have a much better idea about just what this Storm will bring, over the next 24-48 hours.
    Stay tuned for the latest and most up to date information.
    Ryan
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