WEDNESDAY AVALON SNOW UPDATE
What a dance the forecast models have been doing with our Wednesday snow maker for St. John's & the Avalon. The cha-cha-cha continued this afternoon & this evening, as forecast models shifted back and fourth with the track of tomorrow's system. As of this evening, the GFS is still dropping ~5-7 cm over Metro, while the R-GEM & Euro models are in the 10, to as much as 15 cm range. When you see the forecast models shifting this much from run to run, it's a very good indication that they don't have a good handle on the system and things could change again.
As a result of the latest R-GEM & Euro runs I've adjusted the Snowfall map slightly, with the 10 cm line now right through the Metro area. Again, not far from those last few Euro model runs, which have been the most consistent. Once again, a slight shift Northward and Metro could indeed be into the 15 cm range, so this Snowfall map is posted with an asterisk to stay tuned. I'll have the latest tomorrow morning here on the Live Blog. The time-line remains the same, Snow begins early in the morning along the South Coast and spreads into Metro mid-morning. Even with 10 cm on the menu, the drive home will be messy for Metro. Snow eases tomorrow evening, and wraps up near Midnight.