Ryan Snoddon
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Saturday Evening Hurricane Teddy UpdateTeddy remains a category 3 hurricane this evening.Latest National Hurricane Centre track has Teddy transitioning earlier and now has the storm moving into Maritime waters as a category one strength, post-tropical storm.
Note the storm will be slow moving once it arrives in our region.
Forecast models continue to trend east with the track of the Teddy as it moves through the Maritimes. Will that trend continue? Shift back west? Time will tell.
This is a complex setup as Teddy interacts with a mid-level trough arriving from the west & the storm becomes post-tropical. Something we'll need to watch even as the storm approaches.
It's important to note that despite eastern trend in track of #Teddy, the Maritimes remains under threat of strong winds, heavy rain & storm surge. The NHC's sustained tropical storm force wind probability map shows greatest chances for Atlantic coast & SE Maritimes.
It's *only one model* but I've included snapshots of the latest Euro for a sense of how large #Teddy will be, especially after Post Tropical transition. Note the Euro also shows track over Cape Breton, however the wind and rain arrive well ahead of the storm, then well west of the centre as it moves through.
Evening takeaways.Despite the shift, with trees in full leaf most of the region should remain prepared for power outages.With this track further east, the heaviest rain threat is for central & eastern Nova Scotia & PEI.The storm surge threat continues for Nova Scotia and PEI, but remains heavily dependent on the timing of Teddy and how it coincides with high tide.Stay tuned for updates on Sunday.-Ryan- -
SUNDAY EVENING TEDDY UPDATE
Teddy remains a Category 2 hurricane this evening with sustained winds of 165 km/h.
The latest NHC and CHC tracks show Teddy transitioning to a Post-Tropical storm before tracking across eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday.
A reminder that the track will be key and that our early outlook for Teddy impacts Tuesday & Wednesday are subject to change.
The heaviest rainfall is set to fall along & west of track where we may see 50-100 mm.
The strongest winds are expected along the Nova Scotia Atlantic coast + east of the track with gusts 90-110+ km/h.
Elsewhere in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island + Southeast New Brunswick wind gusts of 60-90+ km/h are possible.
Teddy will be a long duration two day event. Round 1 of the heavy rain and gusty winds will arrive on Tuesday, looks like we'll see a brief lull overnight before round 2 arrives with the centre of Teddy on Wednesday.
Pictured is the 12z Euro model.
As per the Canadian Hurricane Centre, storm surge & pounding waves also remain a concern. Given 3-6 hours will make a huge difference in impacts, this will continue to be monitored. Atlantic coast high tide times are near Noon on Tuesday, then just after midnight on Tuesday night.
Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia. Tropical Cyclone and Special Weather Statements are in effect elsewhere.
You can read those statements here: https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=nsStay tuned for updates on Monday.
Ryan